The gap is the opportunity.
U.S. battery demand is surging. Domestic LFP supply is minimal. Figures are projections from project materials.
The gap
U.S. battery demand is projected to surge from roughly 370 GWh to 775 GWh by 2028, while domestic LFP production remains minimal — starting near 12.5 kton in 2025 in project-material estimates. China dominates the supply chain, with imports into the U.S. estimated at 77.5 kton in 2025, growing toward 145 kton by 2028.
These are market-analysis projections from project materials, not IET measurements.
Why domestic supply matters
- Energy security: the U.S. depends heavily on imported critical minerals and battery materials.
- Policy support: the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provides production incentives, including a $35/kWh cell credit and a $10/kWh module credit in the project-material policy summary.
- Customer pull: major U.S. battery buyers are seeking domestic suppliers. Customer names on this site are shown as confirmed by the company and are pending legal review.
Cost position (projections)
Project-material cost analysis (2025 projections, per tonne of LFP cathode):
| Region | Projected cost |
|---|---|
| China | $3,900–5,000 |
| International | ~$10,000 |
| West Texas (proposed) | $10,000–14,250 |
Estimated profit per tonne under tariff scenarios was projected at $4,340–$8,590. These are projections, not realized results.